Rates of change and sensitivity to change in cartilage morphology in healthy knees and in knees with mild, moderate, and end-stage radiographic osteoarthritis: results from 831 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To study the longitudinal rate of (and sensitivity to) change of knee cartilage thickness across defined stages of radiographic osteoarthritis (OA), specifically healthy knees and knees with end-stage radiographic OA.
METHODS: One knee of 831 Osteoarthritis Initiative participants was examined: 112 healthy knees, without radiographic OA or risk factors for knee OA, and 719 radiographic OA knees (310 calculated Kellgren/Lawrence [K/L] grade 2, 300 calculated K/L grade 3, and 109 calculated K/L grade 4). Subregional change in thickness was assessed after segmentation of weight-bearing femorotibial cartilage at baseline and 1 year from coronal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Regional and ordered values (OVs) of change were compared by baseline radiographic OA status.
RESULTS: Healthy knees displayed small changes in plates and subregions (±0.7%; standardized response mean [SRM] ±0.15), with OVs being symmetrically distributed close to zero. In calculated K/L grade 2 knees, changes in cartilage thickness were small (<1%; minimal SRM -0.22) and not significantly different from healthy knees. Knees with calculated K/L grade 3 showed substantial loss of cartilage thickness (up to -2.5%; minimal SRM -0.35), with OV1 changes being significantly (P < 0.05) greater than those in healthy knees. Calculated K/L grade 4 knees displayed the largest rate of loss across radiographic OA grades (up to -3.9%; minimal SRM -0.51), with OV1 changes also significantly (P < 0.05) greater than in healthy knees.
CONCLUSION: MRI-based cartilage thickness showed high rates of loss in knees with moderate and end-stage radiographic OA, and small rates (indistinguishable from healthy knees) in mild radiographic OA. From the perspective of sensitivity to change, end-stage radiographic OA knees need not be excluded from longitudinal studies using MRI cartilage morphology as an end point.