Assessing surface water quality and its relation with urban land cover changes in the Lake Calumet area, Greater Chicago.

Urban land use and land cover change significantly affect spatial and temporal patterns of runoff, which in turn impacts surface water quality. With the exponential growth in urban areas over the past three decades, changes in land use and land cover to cater for the growth of cities has been a conspicuous spectacle in urban spaces. The main goal of this study was to assess the impacts of land cover change on runoff and surface water quality using a partial area hydrology framework. The study employed ArcHydro GIS extension and a modified version of Long-Term Hydrologic and Nonpoint Source Pollution model (L-THIA-NPS) in estimating runoff and nonpoint source pollutant concentration around Lake Calumet between 1992 and 2001. Data employed include National Land Cover Data set, rainfall data, digital elevation model (DEM), Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) data, and The United States Environmental Protection Agency's STORET (storage and retrieval) water quality data. The model was able to predict surface water quality reasonably well over the study period. Sensitivity analysis facilitated a manual calibration of the model. Model validation was executed by comparing simulated results following calibration and observed water quality data for the study area. The study demonstrates that the level of concentration of nonpoint source pollutants in surface water within an urban watershed heavily depends on the spatiotemporal variations in areas that contribute towards runoff compared to the spatial extent of change in major land use/land cover.