Predicting outcomes and drug resistance with standardised treatment of active tuberculosis.

New World Health Organization guidelines recommend initial treatment of active tuberculosis (TB) with a 6-month regimen utilising rifampin throughout. We have modelled expected treatment outcomes, including drug resistance, with this regimen, compared to an 8-month regimen with rifampin for the first 2 months only, followed by standardised retreatment. A deterministic model was used to predict treatment outcomes in hypothetical cohorts of 1,000 new smear-positive cases from seven countries with varying prevalence of initial drug resistance. Model inputs were taken from published systematic reviews. Predicted outcomes included number of deaths, failures and relapses, plus the proportion with drug resistance. Sensitivity analyses examined different risks of acquired drug resistance. Compared to use of the standardised 8-month regimen, for every 1,000 new TB cases treated with the 6-month regimen we predict that 48-86 fewer persons will require retreatment, and 3-12 deaths would be avoided. However, the proportion failing or relapsing after retreatment is predicted to be higher, because with the 6-month regimen 50-94% of failures and 3-56% of relapses will have multidrug-resistant TB. We predict substantial public health benefits from changing from the 8-month to the 6-month regimen. However in almost all settings the current standardised retreatment regimen will no longer be adequate.