Projections of the breast cancer burden to U.S. women: 1990-2000.

Although breast cancer incidence rates in the United States have been climbing for the last 40 years, recent trends have shown a more dramatic increase since 1982. This recent rise has been the subject of much study, and it is likely due in part to increased mammographic screening. A mathematical model incorporating the long-term incidence trend estimated from the Connecticut Tumor Registry and recent increases in availability of dedicated mammography machines is described and used to project incidence rates. Projections of breast cancer incidence rates among U.S. women ages 50 and over from 1990 to the year 2000 are developed. It appears that breast cancer incidence rates will continue to rise until about 1990 and then decline as screening rates stabilize.