Literature DB >> 19744938

Doomed to repeat the successes of the past: history is best forgotten for repeated choices with nonstationary payoffs.

Tim Rakow1, Katherine Miler.   

Abstract

Many everyday tasks involve repeated choices in which past outcomes are used to estimate payoffs but in which present payoffs may differ from past ones. Two experiments with 10 decision problems employing the decisions-from-feedback paradigm examined the choice between two risky options, wherein the payoff probabilities for one option could change over a sequence of trials. Participants either saw the outcomes associated with each option, or additionally were given a "history" summarizing the outcomes of previous trials. Participants adapted quickly to new problems, but adapted slowly to payoff changes. Providing a history improved initial choices, but had a null or negative impact on later ones-although, appropriately, the summary received less weight in later trials. An associative choice model captured changes in preference, but not initial patterns of choice. The findings emphasize the adaptive value of forgetting in unstable decision environments, but illustrate how providing additional relevant information may hinder this.

Entities:  

Mesh:

Year:  2009        PMID: 19744938     DOI: 10.3758/MC.37.7.985

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Mem Cognit        ISSN: 0090-502X


  25 in total

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Authors:  L KATZ
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3.  Effects of range of payoffs as a variable in risk taking.

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5.  Comparison of basic assumptions embedded in learning models for experience-based decision making.

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Journal:  Psychol Rev       Date:  2005-07       Impact factor: 8.934

7.  On Learning To Become a Successful Loser: A Comparison of Alternative Abstractions of Learning Processes in the Loss Domain.

Authors: 
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Review 8.  Scientific, ethical, and logistical considerations in introducing a new operation: a retrospective cohort study from paediatric cardiac surgery.

Authors:  C Bull; R Yates; D Sarkar; J Deanfield; M de Leval
Journal:  BMJ       Date:  2000-04-29

9.  The smart potential behind probability matching.

Authors:  Wolfgang Gaissmaier; Lael J Schooler
Journal:  Cognition       Date:  2008-11-18

10.  The role of experience in decisions from description.

Authors:  Ben R Newell; Tim Rakow
Journal:  Psychon Bull Rev       Date:  2007-12
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  6 in total

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4.  Decisions from experience: how groups and individuals adapt to change.

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Journal:  Mem Cognit       Date:  2014-11

5.  Patterns of choice adaptation in dynamic risky environments.

Authors:  Emmanouil Konstantinidis; Jason L Harman; Cleotilde Gonzalez
Journal:  Mem Cognit       Date:  2022-03-08

6.  A normative inference approach for optimal sample sizes in decisions from experience.

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  6 in total

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