Population dynamics model for Bulinus globosus, intermediate host for Schistosoma haematobium, in river habitats.

A mathematical model is developed that describes the population dynamics of the freshwater snail Bulinus globosus, an intermediate host of Schistosoma haematobium. The model is developed from field data recording abundance changes, recruitment rates, and mortality rates for adult snails in river habitats in Zimbabwe. Rate of recruitment into the adult population is dependent on temperature, incorporating a time lag to allow for growth to adult size. Mortality rate is also a function of temperature. A temperature-dependent model provides a useful description of changes in abundance during the dry season. Long-term population fluctuations are greatly affected by spates (flooding) associated with heavy rainfall. An estimate is made of the frequency and effects of spates. A simulation model that allows variable annual rainfall predicts fluctuations in snail abundance over two orders of magnitude over timescales of ten or more years. The role of density-dependent factors and the long-term persistence of the population are discussed. B. globosus population dynamics can be described as 'density vague'.