Prediction of the population at risk for atherothrombotic disease.

IT IS POSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE POPULATION AT RISK FOR ATHEROTHROMBOTIC DISEASE (ATD) WITH HIGH ACCURACY USING ONLY THREE RISK FACTORS: dyslipidemia, cigarette smoking and hypertension. Using a global risk factor graph with the cholesterol retention fraction (CRF, or [low-density lipoprotein cholesterol - high-density lipoprotein cholesterol]/low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) on the vertical axis and systolic blood pressure (SBP) on the horizontal axis, a threshold line can be drawn using CRF-SBP plots (0.74, 100) and (0.49, 140). Eighty-five per cent of all ATD patients in the Bowling Green Study database were observed to lie above this threshold line. Of the 15% of ATD patients with CRF-SBP plots below the threshold line, most were cigarette smokers, leaving only 6% of patients with ATD in the Bowling Green Study database whose risk for ATD could not be predicted by CRF-SBP plot position above the threshold line and/or cigarette smoking status.