Lethal mutagenesis in viruses and bacteria.

In this work we study how mutations that change physical properties of cell proteins (stability) affect population survival and growth. We present a model in which the genotype is presented as a set folding free energies of cell proteins. Mutations occur upon replication, so stabilities of some proteins in daughter cells differ from those in the parent cell by amounts deduced from the distribution of mutational effects on protein stability. The genotype-phenotype relationship posits that the cell's fitness (replication rate) is proportional to the concentration of its folded proteins and that unstable essential proteins result in lethality. Simulations reveal that lethal mutagenesis occurs at a mutation rate close to seven mutations in each replication of the genome for RNA viruses and at about half that rate for DNA-based organisms, in accord with earlier predictions from analytical theory and experimental results. This number appears somewhat dependent on the number of genes in the organisms and the organism's natural death rate. Further, our model reproduces the distribution of stabilities of natural proteins, in excellent agreement with experiments. We find that species with high mutation rates tend to have less stable proteins compared to species with low mutation rates.