Temperature-dependent development and temperature thresholds of codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Iran.

Developmental rate models and biological parameters estimated from them, especially lower and upper temperature thresholds and optimal temperature, can help to forecast phenological events of codling moth, Cydia pomonella L. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), in apple orchards. We studied the developmental time of immature stages of codling moth at eight constant temperatures ranging from 10 to 35 degrees C and modeled their developmental rate as a function of temperature using 13 published nonlinear and 2 linear models. Data were fitted to developmental rate models and temperature thresholds and the optimal temperatures were estimated. The models were evaluated based on adjusted coefficient of determination (R(2)(adj)) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), in addition to coefficient of determination (R(2)) and residual sum of squares (RSS). The thermal constants were 79.80, 312.60, 232.03, and 615.32 DD for egg, larva, pupa, and overall immature stages of codling moth, respectively, using the Ikemoto and Takai linear model. The Ikemoto and Takai linear model estimated lower temperature thresholds as 9.97, 8.94, 10.04, and 9.63 degrees C for egg, larva, pupa, and overall immature stages, respectively. Among the nonlinear models, the third-order polynomial fit the data well. This model estimates optimal temperature accurately. Brière-1 and Brière-2 accurately estimated the lower and upper temperature thresholds considering model evaluation criteria and accuracy of estimations.