A predictive model of the economic effects of an influenza vaccine adjuvant for the older adult (age 65 and over) population.

Immunosenescence decreases influenza vaccine efficacy in older adults (age 65 and over). Strategies such as vaccine adjuvants are being developed to overcome immunosenescence. Our computer simulation model represented the decision to give an older adult either standard influenza vaccine or adjuvanted influenza vaccine and found the adjuvanted vaccine to be dominant in many scenarios, resulting in lowered cost and greater effectiveness. An adjuvanted vaccine that is 100% effective in overcoming immunosenescence remained dominant until its cost exceeded the standard vaccine cost by $65. In a single influenza season, the adjuvant would prevent 496,533 influenza cases, 171,981 hospitalizations, and 70,429 deaths.