Transmission of insect-vectored pathogens: effects of vector fitness as a function of infectivity status.

The transmission of insect-vectored pathogens is dependent on the population dynamics of the vector. Epidemiological models typically assume that birth and death rates of pathogen-free and inoculative vectors are equal, an assumption that is not true for all pathosystems. Here, a series of simple and general epidemiological models were used to explore how assumptions about birth and death rates of vectors based on their infectivity status influence disease incidence. With fixed death rate of pathogen-free vectors, increasing the death rate of inoculative vectors reduced vector density, the proportion of vectors that were inoculative, and the proportion of hosts infected. This effect was mediated by acquisition rate. Specifically, increasing the acquisition rate increased the proportion of vectors that were inoculative, thereby increasing the proportion of the vector population that experienced the increased death rate. With fixed birth rate of pathogen-free vectors, variation in birth rate of inoculative vectors had little influence on disease incidence provided that the birth rate of pathogen-free vectors was much greater than their death rate. However, when the birth rate of pathogen-free vectors was only slightly greater than their death rate, large increases in the birth rate of inoculative vectors increased total vector density and disease incidence. The results indicate that assumptions about birth and death rates of vectors based on infectivity status can have important effects on the vector population that in turn affects disease incidence.