Predictors of implantable cardioverter defibrillator shocks during the first year.

The purpose of this study was to predict implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shocks using demographic and clinical characteristics in the first year after implantation for secondary prevention of cardiac arrest. A prospective design was used to follow 168 first-time ICD recipients over 12 months. Demographic and clinical data were obtained from medical records at the time of ICD insertion. Implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock data were obtained from ICD interrogation reports at hospital discharge, 3, 6, and 12 months. Logistic regression was used to predict ever receiving an ICD shock using background characteristics. Patients received an ICD for secondary prevention of sudden cardiac arrest, they were 64.1 years old, 89% were white, 77% were male, with a mean (SD) ejection fraction of 33.7% (14.1%). The cumulative percentage of ever receiving an ICD shock was 33.3% over 1 year. Three variables predicted shocks in the first year: history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (odds ratio [OR], 4.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-16.4; P = .03), history of congestive heart failure (OR, 3.55; 95% CI, 1.4-9.3; P = .01), and documented ventricular tachycardia (VT) at the time of ICD implant (OR, 10.05; 95% Cl, 1.8-55.4; P = .01). High levels of anxiety approached significance (OR = 2.82; P = .09). The presence of COPD, congestive heart failure, or VT at ICD implant was a significant predictor of receiving an ICD shock in the first year after ICD implantation. Because ICD shocks are distressing, painful, and associated with greater mortality, healthcare providers should focus attention on prevention of shocks by controlling VT, careful management of HF symptoms, reduction of the use of short acting beta agonist medications in COPD, and perhaps recognizing and treating high levels of anxiety.