Pathways to tumorigenesis--modeling mutation acquisition in stem cells and their progeny.

Most adult tissues consist of stem cells, progenitors, and mature cells, and this hierarchical architecture may play an important role in the multistep process of carcinogenesis. Here, we develop and discuss the important predictions of a simple mathematical model of cancer initiation and early progression within a hierarchically structured tissue. This work presents a model that incorporates both the sequential acquisition of phenotype altering mutations and tissue hierarchy. The model simulates the progressive effect of accumulating mutations that lead to an increase in fitness or the induction of genetic instability. A novel aspect of the model is that symmetric self-renewal, asymmetric division, and differentiation are all incorporated, and this enables the quantitative study of the effect of mutations that deregulate the normal, homeostatic stem cell division pattern. The model is also capable of predicting changes in both tissue composition and in the progression of cells along their lineage at any given time and for various sequences of mutations. Simulations predict that the specific order in which mutations are acquired is crucial for determining the pace of cancer development. Interestingly, we find that the importance of genetic stability differs significantly depending on the physiological expression of mutations related to symmetric self-renewal and differentiation of stem and progenitor cells. In particular, mutations that lead to the alteration of the stem cell division pattern or the acquisition of some degree of immortality in committed progenitors lead to an early onset of cancer and diminish the impact of genetic instability.