The early indicators of financial failure: a study of bankrupt and solvent health systems.

This article presents a series of pertinent predictors of financial failure based on analysis of solvent and bankrupt health systems to identify which financial measures show the clearest distinction between success and failure. Early warning signals are evident from the longitudinal analysis as early as five years before bankruptcy. The data source includes seven years of annual statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by 13 health systems before they filed bankruptcy. Comparative data were compiled from five solvent health systems for the same seven-year period. Seven financial solvency ratios are included in this study, including four cash liquidity measures, two leverage measures, and one efficiency measure. The results show distinct financial trends between solvent and bankrupt health systems, in particular for the operating-cash-flow-related measures, namely Ratio 1: Operating Cash Flow Percentage Change, from prior to current period; Ratio 2: Operating Cash Flow to Net Revenues; and Ratio 4: Cash Flow to Total Liabilities, indicating sensitivity in the hospital industry to cash flow management. The high dependence on credit from third-party payers is cited as a reason for this; thus, there is a great need for cash to fund operations. Five managerial policy implications are provided to help health system managers avoid financial solvency problems in the future.