Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane and polychlorinated biphenyls: intraindividual changes, correlations, and predictors in healthy women from the southeastern United States.

Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDE) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) are widespread environmental contaminants that have been postulated to increase the risk of diseases such as non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, breast cancer, as well as lead to early menopause. Studies assessing the effect of organochlorine exposure often can only measure organochlorine levels once, such as at study enrollment, which may not be an etiologically relevant time period. We assessed the temporal changes in DDE and PCBs and the predictors of those changes using interview data and DDE and PCB measures collected from 123 women who were enrolled in a baseline study from 1978 to 1982 and followed up in 2003 to 2004. Baseline and follow-up organochlorine levels were compared using Spearman correlations (r(s)), and predictors of the rate of change in log concentration were evaluated using linear regression models. Although serum concentrations dramatically declined (median follow-up to baseline concentration ratio was 16% for DDE and 45% for PCB), baseline and follow-up measures were strongly correlated for DDE (r(s)=0.72) and moderately correlated for PCBs (r(s)=0.43). Prediction of follow-up PCB levels was substantially improved (r(s)=0.75) with data on initial concentration, length of lactation, baseline body mass index, and percent change in body fat, whereas DDE prediction improved slightly (r(s)=0.83) with data on lactation and baseline body mass index. These findings suggest that a single organochlorine measure provides considerable information on relative ranking at distant times and that the predictive power can be improved, particularly for PCBs, with information on a few predictors.