Evaluation of potential habitat with an integrated analysis of a spatial conservation strategy for David's deer, Elaphurus davidians.

How to assess the potential habitat integrating landscape dynamics and population research, and how to reintroduce animals to potential habitats in environments highly human disturbed are still questions to be answered in conservation biology. According to behavioral research on Elaphurus davidians, we have developed a suitability index and a risk index to evaluate the potential habitats for the deer. With these indices, we conducted two transect assessments to evaluate the gradient change of the target region. Then, taking rivers as border lines, we tabulated the forest areas, high grassland area and total area and then compared the forest and high grassland area in each subregion. Furthermore, we computed the land use transfer matrix for the whole Yancheng coast during 1987-2000. We also computed human modified index (HMI) in six subregions. Lastly with a geographical information system support we obtained the spatial distribution of the indices and evaluation of the whole potential habitats from a neighborhood analysis. The transect assessment showed that the suitability of the coastal area was higher than that of the inland area for the deer, while the southern area was higher than the northern. Landscape metrics and HMI analysis showed that different landscape patterns and different anthropogenic disturbance existed within the region, and the increasing human disturbance was the key factor causing the pattern dynamics. The evaluation of potential habitats showed that there was an estimated carrying capacity of no more than 10,000 for David's deer reintroduction into the natural area. Also the reintroduction strategy was discussed. This integrated approach linked the population research and the landscape metrics, and the dataset with different scale; thus, it is an approach likely to be useful for the protection of other large animal in a landscape highly disturbed by humans.