The evolution of urban sprawl: evidence of spatial heterogeneity and increasing land fragmentation.

We investigate the dynamics and spatial distribution of land use fragmentation in a rapidly urbanizing region of the United States to test key propositions regarding the evolution of sprawl. Using selected pattern metrics and data from 1973 and 2000 for the state of Maryland, we find significant increases in developed and undeveloped land fragmentation but substantial spatial heterogeneity as well. Estimated fragmentation gradients that describe mean fragmentation as a function of distance from urban centers confirm the hypotheses that fragmentation rises and falls with distance and that the point of maximum fragmentation shifted outward over time. However, rather than outward increases in sprawl balanced by development infill, we find substantial and significant increases in mean fragmentation values along the entire urban-rural gradient. These findings are in contrast to the results of Burchfield et al. [Burchfield M, Overman HG, Puga D, Turner MA (2006) Q J Econ 121:587-633], who conclude that the extent of sprawl remained roughly unchanged in the Unites States between 1976 and 1992. As demonstrated here, both the data and pattern measure used in their study are systematically biased against recording low-density residential development, the very land use that we find is most strongly associated with fragmentation. Other results demonstrate the association between exurban growth and increasing fragmentation and the systematic variation of fragmentation with nonurban factors. In particular, proximity to the Chesapeake Bay is negatively associated with fragmentation, suggesting that an attraction effect associated with this natural amenity has concentrated development.