Breeding goals for the Kenya dual purpose goat. I. Model development and application to smallholder production systems.

A deterministic model was developed and applied to evaluate biological and economic variables that characterize smallholder production systems utilizing the Kenya Dual Purpose goat (KDPG) in Kenya. The systems were defined as: smallholder low-potential (SLP), smallholder medium-potential (SMP) and smallholder high-potential (SHP). The model was able to predict revenues and costs to the system. Revenues were from sale of milk, surplus yearlings and cull-forage animals, while costs included those incurred for feeds, husbandry, marketing and fixed asset (fixed costs). Of the total outputs, revenue from meat and milk accounted for about 55% and 45%, respectively, in SMP and 39% and 61% in SHP. Total costs comprised mainly variable costs (98%), with husbandry costs being the highest in both SMP and SLP. The total profit per doe per year was KSh 315.48 in SMP, KSh -1352.75 in SLP and KSh -80.22 in SHP. Results suggest that the utilization of the KDPG goat in Kenya is more profitable in the smallholder medium-potential production system. The implication for the application of the model to smallholder production systems in Kenya is discussed.