Determinants of short-run supply of small ruminants in Botswana.

This study utilizes pooled agricultural region data for the 1982-1987 period to estimate the short-run supply of sheep and goats in Botswana. Elasticity estimates indicate that a 1% increase (decrease) in rainfall at year t leads to a 0.53% rise (fall) in goat marketing in year t+1, and that a 1% rise (fall) in goat population (inventory) leads to a 0.15% rise (fall) in goat sales. The sheep equation reveals that a 1% increase (decrease) in sheep inventory results in a 1.23% rise (fall) in the number of sheep marketed, and suggests that rainfall has no impact on sheep sales. It is argued that the inelastic response of goat sales to changes in goat inventory reinforces the general view that livestock in Botswana are treated as a store of wealth, rather than as primarily a commercial activity for generating cash incomes. This tendency seems to be reduced in the case of sheep, where an elastic response of sales to changes in sheep inventory is observed. Producer prices are found to have no impact on small ruminant sale. The lack of responsiveness of supply to prices may be revealing the existence of inadequate access by most producers to organized markets for small ruminants. It is further argued that without promoting the development of such markets, other developmental efforts, particularly those geared at improving farm-level productivity will yield no positive outcomes, as farmers lack the cash incentive to invest in improved management and husbandry practices.