Climatic effects on life-history traits of moose in Estonia.

Weather variables can influence life-history traits of ungulates. In this study, we assessed the suitability of regional climate indices including the NAO and two measures of local climate-the maximal extent of ice on the Baltic Sea (MIE) and absolute values of its annual deviations from the multi-year mean (VMIE)-to examine how density-independent processes influence moose body size and fecundity. We predicted that both winter severity (large values of MIE) and variability (large values of VMIE) depress moose traits (e.g., severe winters increase energy expenditure because of large snow depth or low temperatures, while the warmer than average winters may impose greater energetic demands on thermoregulation due to wet and windy weather, or may have indirect negative effects on summer foraging conditions). We estimated direct, delayed (lag) and cumulative effects of each climate measure. Both MIE and VMIE negatively affected jawbone length, with the effect size varying between the respective climatic indices and among age classes. In contrast to results obtained using local climatic variables, the NAO index had no significant effect on jawbone length. The probability of multiple ovulation was negatively influenced by direct effects of VMIE and delayed effects of MIE and NAO. We conclude that MIE and VMIE capture different aspects of the local climate and that these indices can be used in parallel as determinants of growth and fecundity of northern ungulates in coastal regions of the Baltic Sea.