OBJECTIVES: We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. METHODS: Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). RESULTS: Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. CONCLUSIONS: Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.
OBJECTIVES: We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. METHODS: Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). RESULTS: Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. CONCLUSIONS: Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.
Authors: Joyce Klein Rosenthal; Elliott D Sclar; Patrick L Kinney; Kim Knowlton; Robert Crauderueff; Paul W Brandt-Rauf Journal: Ann Acad Med Singap Date: 2007-10 Impact factor: 2.473
Authors: J Díaz; A Jordán; R García; C López; J C Alberdi; E Hernández; A Otero Journal: Int Arch Occup Environ Health Date: 2002-03 Impact factor: 3.015
Authors: Michael T Schmeltz; Sonia K González; Liza Fuentes; Amy Kwan; Anna Ortega-Williams; Lisa Pilar Cowan Journal: J Urban Health Date: 2013-10 Impact factor: 3.671
Authors: Sara Lauretta Martin; Sabit Cakmak; Christopher Alan Hebbern; Mary-Luyza Avramescu; Neil Tremblay Journal: Int J Biometeorol Date: 2011-05-20 Impact factor: 3.787
Authors: Shilu Tong; Peter Mather; Gerry Fitzgerald; David McRae; Ken Verrall; Dylan Walker Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2010-02-12 Impact factor: 3.390