BACKGROUND: Screening for prostate cancer has resulted in an increased incidence-to-mortality ratio. Not all cancers deserve immediate treatment. It has therefore become more important to be able to identify those cases of screen-detected prostate cancer most likely to show indolent behavior. METHODS: The Kattan-nomogram for the prediction of indolent prostate cancer was validated and recalibrated for use in a screening setting. The recalibrated nomogram was used to calculate the number of men who were predicted to have indolent cancer in a screen-detected cohort from the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC), section Rotterdam. RESULTS: Of 1629 cancers detected in 2 subsequent screening rounds 825 were suitable for nomogram use. The remainder were very unlikely to have indolent cancer. A total of 485 men (485 of 825 = 59%) were predicted to have indolent cancer, which is 30% (485 of 1629) of all screen-detected cases. Cancers found at repeated screening after 4 years had a higher probability of indolent cancer than cases from the prevalence screening (44% vs 23%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The current nomogram can identify substantial groups of screen-detected cancers that are likely indolent and can therefore be considered for active surveillance. (c) 2007 American Cancer Society.
RCT Entities:
BACKGROUND: Screening for prostate cancer has resulted in an increased incidence-to-mortality ratio. Not all cancers deserve immediate treatment. It has therefore become more important to be able to identify those cases of screen-detected prostate cancer most likely to show indolent behavior. METHODS: The Kattan-nomogram for the prediction of indolent prostate cancer was validated and recalibrated for use in a screening setting. The recalibrated nomogram was used to calculate the number of men who were predicted to have indolent cancer in a screen-detected cohort from the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC), section Rotterdam. RESULTS: Of 1629 cancers detected in 2 subsequent screening rounds 825 were suitable for nomogram use. The remainder were very unlikely to have indolent cancer. A total of 485 men (485 of 825 = 59%) were predicted to have indolent cancer, which is 30% (485 of 1629) of all screen-detected cases. Cancers found at repeated screening after 4 years had a higher probability of indolent cancer than cases from the prevalence screening (44% vs 23%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The current nomogram can identify substantial groups of screen-detected cancers that are likely indolent and can therefore be considered for active surveillance. (c) 2007 American Cancer Society.
Authors: Ryan K Berglund; Timothy A Masterson; Kinjal C Vora; Scott E Eggener; James A Eastham; Bertrand D Guillonneau Journal: J Urol Date: 2008-09-17 Impact factor: 7.450
Authors: Scott E Eggener; Alex Mueller; Ryan K Berglund; Raj Ayyathurai; Cindy Soloway; Mark S Soloway; Robert Abouassaly; Eric A Klein; Steven J Jones; Chris Zappavigna; Larry Goldenberg; Peter T Scardino; James A Eastham; Bertrand Guillonneau Journal: J Urol Date: 2009-02-23 Impact factor: 7.450