Predicting fate from early connectivity in a social network.

In the long-tailed manakin (Chiroxiphia linearis), a long-lived tropical bird, early connectivity within a social network predicts male success an average of 4.8 years later. Long-tailed manakins have an unusual lek mating system in which pairs of unrelated males, at the top of complex overlapping teams of as many as 15 males, cooperate for obligate dual-male song and dance courtship displays. For as long as 8 years before forming stable "alpha-beta" partnerships, males interact with many other males in complex, temporally dynamic social networks. "Information centrality" is a network connectivity metric that accounts for indirect as well as shortest (geodesic) paths among interactors. The odds that males would rise socially rose by a factor of five for each one-unit increase in their early information centrality. Connectivity of males destined to rise did not change over time but increased in males that failed to rise socially. The results suggest that network connectivity is important for young males (ages 1-6) but less so for older males of high status (ages 10-15) and that it is difficult to explain present success without reference to social history.