Meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in hospitals and the community: model predictions based on the UK situation.

Theoretical modelling has shown that patient movements in and out of hospitals are likely to affect nosocomial transmission dynamics considerably. The community acts as a "reservoir" and readmission of individuals colonised during previous admissions can result in sporadic transmission episodes within hospitals. We investigated patient movement patterns and frequency of readmissions using seven years of complete data from the University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust. Sufficient information is held on individual patients to study the heterogeneity in readmission. Overall, we found that an infected person has a 44.2% chance of being readmitted to the Trust while still infected. This value is far higher than previous estimates (3.7% [Cooper et al., Health Technol Assess 2003;7(39)]), highlighting the potential importance of transmission driven by hospital admissions. For this reason we believe consideration of readmissions from the community population to be critical to the success of hospital acquired infection control.