Inpatient cardiopulmonary resuscitation: is survival prediction possible?

We retrospectively reviewed 443 patients who had cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The focus of the study was to discover what preexisting factors should be assessed to determine the probability of survival. There were 88 successes out of 340 cases (25.9%). The absence of a previous myocardial infarction (MI), shock, partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) less than 60 mm Hg, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level greater than 20 mg/dL, pneumonia, pulmonary edema, and oliguria were found to predict a successful outcome. Logistic regression was used to predict percentage of successes in the various groups of patients with various clinical characteristics. The observed and predicted numbers of successes were in close agreement in most cases. We also constructed a classification function to predict whether an individual subject would survive the event for which CPR was required. Sixty-seven of the 88 observed successes would have been predicted, for an estimated sensitivity of 76%, and 164 of the 252 failures would have been predicted, for an estimated specificity of 65%. A large percentage (24%) of cases in which the patient actually survived CPR would have been predicted to be failures. We conclude that preexisting factors before a cardiopulmonary arrest do not accurately predict survival after CPR.