Distribution of salmon-habitat potential relative to landscape characteristics and implications for conservation.

The geographic distribution of stream reaches with potential to support high-quality habitat for salmonids has bearing on the actual status of habitats and populations over broad spatial extents. As part of the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study (CLAMS), we examined how salmon-habitat potential was distributed relative to current and future (+100 years) landscape characteristics in the Coastal Province of Oregon, USA. The intrinsic potential to provide high-quality rearing habitat was modeled for juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and juvenile steelhead (O. mykiss) based on stream flow, valley constraint, and stream gradient. Land ownership, use, and cover were summarized for 100-m analysis buffers on either side of stream reaches with high intrinsic potential and in the overall area encompassing the buffers. Past management seems to have concentrated nonindustrial private ownership, agriculture, and developed uses adjacent to reaches with high intrinsic potential for coho salmon. Thus, of the area in coho salmon buffers, 45% is either nonforested or recently logged, but only 10% is in larger-diameter forests. For the area in steelhead buffers, 21% is either non-forested or recently logged while 20% is in larger-diameter forests. Older forests are most extensive on federal lands but are rare on private lands, highlighting the critical role for public lands in near-term salmon conservation. Agriculture and development are projected to remain focused near high-intrinsic-potential reaches for coho salmon, increasing the importance of effectively addressing nonpoint source pollution from these uses. Percentages of larger-diameter forests are expected to increase throughout the province, but the increase will be only half as much in coho salmon buffers as in steelhead buffers. Most of the increase is projected for public lands, where policies emphasize biodiversity protection. Results suggest that widespread recovery of coho salmon is unlikely unless habitat can be improved in high-intrinsic-potential reaches on private lands. Knowing where high-intrinsic-potential stream reaches occur relative to landscape characteristics can help in evaluating the current and future condition of freshwater habitat, explaining differences between species in population status and risk, and assessing the need for and feasibility of restoration.