The Potential Economic Impact of an Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Canada.

The possibility of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease is of concern to Canada's livestock industry due to the resulting economic consequences. The primary economic impact of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak would arise from the trade embargo placed on Canadian exports of animals and animal products to countries free of the disease. Agriculture Canada's Food and Agriculture Regional Model was used to estimate the economic impact of such a trade embargo. Two scenarios, a small and large outbreak, were simulated over a five year period (1986-90). The results indicate that even a small outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease would have serious economic consequences for the livestock sector with farm cash receipts declining by $2 billion. The largest impact would be on the pork sector followed by the beef sector.