Predictability of disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

The aim of this study was to determine the predictors of disease progression in a group of 832 patients with the diagnosis of definite or probable amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Disease progression was defined as the time to 20-point change in Appel ALS (AALS) score. The effects of individual prognostic factors on disease progression were assessed with the Kaplan-Meier life-table method. In addition, the prognostic value of each factor was estimated using both univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. The median time to a 20-point change in AALS score in our patient population was 9 months. Age, site of symptom onset, time between first symptom and first examination, total AALS score at first examination, and AALS preslope (rate of disease progression between first symptom and first examination) were significant and independent covariates of disease progression in our population. Identification of predictors of disease progression will facilitate better design of therapeutic trials, permitting the use of disease progression as a primary endpoint and improving baseline stratification of patient populations.