Testing green coffee for ochratoxin A, part III: performance of ochratoxin A sampling plan.

Green coffee shipments are often inspected for ochratoxin A (OTA) and classified into good or bad categories depending on whether the OTA estimates are above or below a defined regulatory limit. Because of the uncertainty associated with the sampling, sample preparation, and analytical steps of an OTA test procedure, some shipments of green coffee will be misclassified. The misclassification of lots leads to some good lots being rejected (sellers' risk) and some bad lots being accepted (buyers' risk) by an OTA sampling plan. Reducing the uncertainty of an OTA test procedure and using an accept/reject limit less than the regulatory limit can reduce the magnitude of one or both risks. The uncertainty of the OTA test procedure is most effectively reduced by increasing sample size (or increasing the number of samples analyzed), because the sampling step is the largest source of uncertainty in the OTA test procedure. The effects of increasing sample size and changing the sample accept/reject limit relative to the regulatory limit on the performance of OTA sampling plans for green coffee were investigated. For a given accept/reject limit of 5 microg/kg, increasing sample size increased the percentage of lots accepted at concentrations below the regulatory limit and increased the percentage of lots rejected at concentrations above the regulatory limit. As a result, increasing sample size reduced both the number of good lots rejected (sellers' risk) and the number of bad lots accepted (buyers' risk). For a given sample size (1 kg), decreasing the sample accept/reject limit from 5 to 2 microg/kg relative to a fixed regulatory limit of 5 microg/kg decreased the percentage of lots accepted and increased the percentage of lots rejected at all OTA concentrations. As a result, decreasing the accept/reject limit below the regulatory limit increased the number of good lots rejected (sellers' risk), but decreased the number of bad lots accepted (buyers' risk).