Reducing the "risk" of chemoprevention: defining and targeting high risk--2005 AACR Cancer Research and Prevention Foundation Award Lecture.

Two large-scale, phase III cancer prevention trials, the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT) of tamoxifen and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) of finasteride, concluded with strikingly positive and simultaneously problematic results: reduced cancer risks but a major adverse finding with each agent that prevented its widespread use in the community. For most moderate-risk people, such as those studied in the BCPT and PCPT, the benefit of reduced breast or prostate cancer does not outweigh the major risk of tamoxifen (endometrial cancer in the BCPT) or apparent risk of finasteride (high-grade prostate cancer in the PCPT). Promising interventions with biologically active substances are likely to have adverse, perhaps unforeseen effects, especially with long-term preventive use. Acceptance of such agents will depend heavily on the level of cancer risk of the target population. This article outlines research in molecularly identified high-risk oral intraepithelial neoplasia that creates the clinical opportunity for optimizing the risk-benefit ratio of agents to prevent oral cancer. Two other major research efforts focused on improving preventive agent risk-benefit ratios are molecular-targeted research designed to target away from known adverse signaling pathways and multidisciplinary research based on the PCPT that will develop comprehensive models of prostate cancer risk (especially of aggressive prostate cancer) and pharmacoecogenetic models for identifying high-risk men most likely to benefit from (and not be harmed by) finasteride or similar (5alpha-reductase inhibiting) agents. Defining and targeting high-risk populations, developing molecular-targeted approaches, and developing accurate pharmacoecogenetic models promise to reduce the risk of chemoprevention and ultimately to reduce the risk and burden of major cancers.