Hybrid maize breeding with doubled haploids: I. One-stage versus two-stage selection for testcross performance.

Optimum allocation of resources is of fundamental importance for the efficiency of breeding programs. The objectives of our study were to (1) determine the optimum allocation for the number of lines and test locations in hybrid maize breeding with doubled haploids (DHs) regarding two optimization criteria, the selection gain deltaG(k) and the probability P(k) of identifying superior genotypes, (2) compare both optimization criteria including their standard deviations (SDs), and (3) investigate the influence of production costs of DHs on the optimum allocation. For different budgets, number of finally selected lines, ratios of variance components, and production costs of DHs, the optimum allocation of test resources under one- and two-stage selection for testcross performance with a given tester was determined by using Monte Carlo simulations. In one-stage selection, lines are tested in field trials in a single year. In two-stage selection, optimum allocation of resources involves evaluation of (1) a large number of lines in a small number of test locations in the first year and (2) a small number of the selected superior lines in a large number of test locations in the second year, thereby maximizing both optimization criteria. Furthermore, to have a realistic chance of identifying a superior genotype, the probability P(k) of identifying superior genotypes should be greater than 75%. For budgets between 200 and 5,000 field plot equivalents, P(k) > 75% was reached only for genotypes belonging to the best 5% of the population. As the optimum allocation for P(k)(5%) was similar to that for deltaG(k), the choice of the optimization criterion was not crucial. The production costs of DHs had only a minor effect on the optimum number of locations and on values of the optimization criteria.