Bayesian evidence synthesis to extrapolate survival estimates in cost-effectiveness studies.

This paper is concerned with survival extrapolation that represents an integral part of cost-effectiveness analysis. In the absence of long-term survival estimates from randomized clinical trials or meta-analysis we show how age-sex matched U.K. population data can additionally be used to estimate survival patterns. We adopt a Bayesian approach and we synthesize evidence from different sources such as patient registries, U.K. population statistics and meta-analyses. We also present methodology for Bayesian analysis of the additive hazards model and we show how to apply the techniques using freely available software. The methods are illustrated using data from a cohort of cardiac arrhythmia patients. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.