BACKGROUND: In 2003, a new risk function for cardiovascular risk in clinical practice was developed by the SCORE project group. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the SCORE in a large Austrian population. DESIGN: A prospective, multicentre, longitudinal linkage project. METHODS: Using the 'SCORE risk function for low-risk regions', we calculated the risk of death from cardiovascular and coronary heart disease events over a 10-year period for 44 649 participants aged 40-65 years in the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Programme (VHM&PP). The predicted risks were compared with the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the observed events. RESULTS: We observed a total of 487 deaths (1.1%; 95% CI 1.0-1.2) for all cardiovascular disease within 10 years, 371 (1.8%; 95% CI 1.6-2.0) in men and 116 (0.5%; 95% CI 0.4-0.6) in women. The SCORE function overestimated cardiovascular mortality and predicted 666 (1.5%) events, 444 (2.2%) in men and 222 (0.9%) in women. Receiver operating characteristics analyses revealed area under the curve values of 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.79) for men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.82) for women. Multivariable analyses showed that obesity (in men only) increased levels of glucose, gamma-glutamyl transferase, triglycerides (in women only), and blue-collar job status (in women only) significantly contributed to the SCORE as additional independent risk factors. CONCLUSION: Although the SCORE over-predicted the mortality pattern in the cohort as a whole, its predictive ability at the individual level still demonstrates a potentially widespread utility in clinical practice.
BACKGROUND: In 2003, a new risk function for cardiovascular risk in clinical practice was developed by the SCORE project group. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the SCORE in a large Austrian population. DESIGN: A prospective, multicentre, longitudinal linkage project. METHODS: Using the 'SCORE risk function for low-risk regions', we calculated the risk of death from cardiovascular and coronary heart disease events over a 10-year period for 44 649 participants aged 40-65 years in the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Programme (VHM&PP). The predicted risks were compared with the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the observed events. RESULTS: We observed a total of 487 deaths (1.1%; 95% CI 1.0-1.2) for all cardiovascular disease within 10 years, 371 (1.8%; 95% CI 1.6-2.0) in men and 116 (0.5%; 95% CI 0.4-0.6) in women. The SCORE function overestimated cardiovascular mortality and predicted 666 (1.5%) events, 444 (2.2%) in men and 222 (0.9%) in women. Receiver operating characteristics analyses revealed area under the curve values of 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.79) for men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.82) for women. Multivariable analyses showed that obesity (in men only) increased levels of glucose, gamma-glutamyl transferase, triglycerides (in women only), and blue-collar job status (in women only) significantly contributed to the SCORE as additional independent risk factors. CONCLUSION: Although the SCORE over-predicted the mortality pattern in the cohort as a whole, its predictive ability at the individual level still demonstrates a potentially widespread utility in clinical practice.
Authors: Frederick K Ho; Lyn D Ferguson; Carlos A Celis-Morales; Stuart R Gray; Ewan Forrest; William Alazawi; Jason Mr Gill; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; John Gf Cleland; Paul Welsh; Jill P Pell; Naveed Sattar Journal: EClinicalMedicine Date: 2022-05-12
Authors: Carlos M Ferrario; Michael A Moore; William Bestermann; Chris Colby; Alex Exuzides; Debra Simmons; Sumeet Panjabi Journal: Vasc Health Risk Manag Date: 2010-12-13
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Authors: Amber A W A van der Heijden; Monica M Ortegon; Louis W Niessen; Giel Nijpels; Jacqueline M Dekker Journal: Diabetes Care Date: 2009-11 Impact factor: 19.112
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