| Literature DB >> 16207323 |
Bert Vander Cruyssen1, Stijn Van Looy, Bart Wyns, Rene Westhovens, Patrick Durez, Filip Van den Bosch, Eric M Veys, Herman Mielants, Luc De Clerck, Anne Peretz, Michel Malaise, Leon Verbruggen, Nathan Vastesaeger, Anja Geldhof, Luc Boullart, Filip De Keyser.
Abstract
This study is based on an expanded access program in which 511 patients suffering from active refractory rheumatoid arthritis (RA) were treated with intravenous infusions of infliximab (3 mg/kg+methotrexate (MTX)) at weeks 0, 2, 6 and every 8 weeks thereafter. At week 22, 474 patients were still in follow-up, of whom 102 (21.5%), who were not optimally responding to treatment, received a dose increase from week 30 onward. We aimed to build a model to discriminate the decision to give a dose increase. This decision was based on the treating rheumatologist's clinical judgment and therefore can be considered as a clinical measure of insufficient response. Different single and composite measures at weeks 0, 6, 14 and 22, and their differences over time were taken into account for the model building. Ranking of the continuous variables based on areas under the curve of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, displayed the momentary DAS28 (Disease Activity Score including a 28-joint count) as the most important discriminating variable. Subsequently, we proved that the response scores and the changes over time were less important than the momentary evaluations to discriminate the physician's decision. The final model we thus obtained was a model with only slightly better discriminative characteristics than the DAS28. Finally, we fitted a discriminant function using the single variables of the DAS28. This displayed similar scores and coefficients as the DAS28. In conclusion, we evaluated different variables and models to discriminate the treating rheumatologist's decision to increase the dose of infliximab (+MTX), which indicates an insufficient response to infliximab at 3 mg/kg in patients with RA. We proved that the momentary DAS28 score correlates best with this decision and demonstrated the robustness of the score and the coefficients of the DAS28 in a cohort of RA patients under infliximab therapy.Entities:
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Year: 2005 PMID: 16207323 PMCID: PMC1257436 DOI: 10.1186/ar1787
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Arthritis Res Ther ISSN: 1478-6354 Impact factor: 5.156
Formulae to calculate the different DAS and SDAI score
| Score | Formula | AUC (95% CI) | Sens at 95% spec, % (95% CI) |
| DAS28 | 0.56*sqrt(28TJC) + 0.28*sqrt(28SJC) + 0.70*ln(ESR) + 0.014*pt global VAS | 0.840 (0.791–0.889) | 42.5 (36.9–48.1) |
| DAS28-3 | [0.56*sqrt(28TJC) + 0.28*sqrt(28SJC) + 0.70*ln(ESR)]*1.08 + 0.16 | 0.815 (0.763–0.868) | 37.8 (32.3–43.3) |
| DAS28-CRP | 0.56*sqrt(28TJC) + 0.28*sqrt(28SJC) + 0.36*ln(CRP+1) + 0.014* pt global VAS + 0.96 | 0.829 (0.782–0.876) | 35.8 (30.4–41.2) |
| DAS28-CRP-3 | [0.56*sqrt(28TJC) + 0.28*sqrt(28SJC) + 0.36*ln(CRP+1)] * 1.10 + 1.15 | 0.806 (0.755–0.858) | 28.9 (23.8–33.9) |
| SDAI | 28TJC + 28SJC + CRP/10 + pt global VAS/10 + phys global VAS/10 | 0.824 (0.776–0.873) | 40.7 (35.1–46.2) |
| CDAI | 28TJC + 28SJC + pt global VAS/10 + phys global VAS/10 | 0.821 (0.772–0.870) | 37.8 (32.3–43.2) |
DAS28-3 and DAS28-CRP-3 are the DAS28 and DAS28-CRP scores calculated without the patient's global disease activity VAS. AUC, area under the curve; CDAI, clinical disease activity score; CRP, C-reactive protein; DAS, disease activity score; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; phys, physician; pt, patient; SDAI, simplified disease activity score; SJC28, 28 swollen joint count; TJC28, 28 tender joint count; VAS, Visual Analogue Scale.
Variables with the highest ranking based on ROC curve AUC and sensitivities at 95% specificity
| AUC | 95% CI of AUC | |
| DAS28 w22 | 0.840 | 0.791–0.889 |
| 28 TJC w22 | 0.797 | 0.744–0.850 |
| Physician global VAS w22 | 0.786 | 0.736–0.836 |
| Patient pain VAS w22 | 0.764 | 0.71–0.814 |
| DAS28 w14 | 0.750 | 0.685–0.815 |
| Patient disease activity VAS w22 | 0.750 | 0.689–0.802 |
| 66TJC w22 | 0.740 | 0.689–0.791 |
| 28TJC w14 | 0.721 | 0.662–0.780 |
| 66SJC w22 | 0.717 | 0.660–0.774 |
| ESR w22 | 0.716 | 0.654–0.779 |
| Sensitivity (%) at 95% specificity level | 95% CI of sensitivity | |
| DAS28 w22 | 42.5 | 36.9–48.1 |
| Physician global VAS w22 | 32.7 | 28.4–37.0 |
| 28SJC w22 | 29.8 | 24.7–34.9 |
| Patient pain VAS w22 | 26.8 | 22.7–30.9 |
| 66SJC w22 | 24.5 | 20.6–28.4 |
| ESR w22 | 24.1 | 19.7–28.5 |
| 66SJC w14 | 23.0 | 18.6–27.4 |
| CRP w22 | 21.3 | 17.3–25.3 |
| Patient disease activity VAS w22 | 20.4 | 16.6-4.2 |
| DAS28 w14 | 20.3 | 15.3–25.3 |
AUC, area under the curve; TJC, tender joint count; SJC, swollen joint count; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; CI, confidence interval; CRP, C-reactive protein; w, week.
Sensitivity and specificity of the response scores compared with DAS28 set at equal specificity
| Sensitivity and specificity of the different response scores | Sensitivity of DAS28 at the same specificity level | |||
| Specificity (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Sensitivity (%) | According DAS28 score | |
| No moderate DAS response | 83.3 | 46.7 | 67.5 | 4.8 |
| No good DAS response | 42.4 | 96.3 | 97.3 | 3.1 |
| No ACR20 response | 64.2 | 69.6 | 80.0 | 4.0 |
| No ACR50 response | 33.6 | 85.9 | 97.5 | 2.9 |
DAS, disease activity score.
Figure 1Plot of the mean scores over time. Act, activity; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HAQ, Health Assessment Questionnaire; SJC, swollen joint count; TJC, tender joint count; pt, patient; Phys, physician; SQRT, variable normalized by taking the squared root; ln, variable normalized by taking the natural logarithm; VAS, visual analogue scale.
Figure 2Validation of the DAS28 score and coefficients (see text). ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; VAS, visual analogue scale.
Figure 3ROC curve analysis of the DAS28 at week 22 (plotting the 1-specificity versus the sensitivity). Also the accuracy, PPV and NPV are plotted. PPV, positive predictive value (predictive value to give a dose increase as a measure of insufficient response); NPV, negative predictive value (predictive value to continue on the current dose as a measure of good response).
Performance at different cut-offs of DAS28 at week 22 for dose increase
| DAS cut-off | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Accuracy |
| 2.0 | 0.99 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.98 | 0.31 |
| 2.5 | 0.99 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.99 | 0.38 |
| 2.6 | 0.99 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.99 | 0.41 |
| 3.0 | 0.98 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.98 | 0.50 |
| 3.2 | 0.96 | 0.46 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 0.57 |
| 4.0 | 0.79 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.92 | 0.68 |
| 4.5 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| 5.0 | 0.58 | 0.87 | 0.55 | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| 5.1 | 0.53 | 0.88 | 0.55 | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| 5.5 | 0.43 | 0.95 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 0.84 |
| 6.0 | 0.34 | 0.97 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 0.83 |
| 6.5 | 0.19 | 0.98 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.81 |
DAS, disease activity score; PPV, positive predictive value (predictive value to give a dose increase as a measure of insufficient response); NPV, negative predictive value (predictive value to continue on the current dose as a measure of good response); PPV, NPV and accuracy were calculated using the following formulae:
c) Accuracy = sensitivity* a_priori_chance + specificity* (1-a_priori_chance)
The a priori chance is given by the percentage of patients that need a dose increase as a measure of insufficient response.