Expectancy, fear and pain in the prediction of chronic pain and disability: a prospective analysis.

Studies with (sub) acute back pain patients show that negative expectancies predict pain and disability at a one-year follow up. Yet, it is not clear how expectations relate to other factors in the development of chronic disability such as pain and fear. This study investigates the relationship between expectations, pain-related fear and pain and studies how these variables are related to the development of chronic pain and disability. Subjects (N = 141) with back and/or neck pain (duration <1 year) were recruited via primary care. They completed measures on pain, expectancy, pain-related fear (pain-related negative affect and fear avoidance beliefs) and function. A one-year follow up was conducted with regard to pain and function. It was found that pain, expectancy, pain-related fear and function were strongly interrelated. In the cross-sectional analyses negative expectancies were best explained by frequent pain and a belief in an underlying and serious medical problem. Prospectively, negative expectancy, negative affect and a belief that activity may result in (re) injury or increased pain, explained unique variance in both pain and function at one-year follow up. In conclusion, expectancy, negative affect and fear avoidance beliefs are interrelated constructs that have predictive value for future pain and disability. Clinically, it can be helpful to inquire about beliefs, expectancy and distress as an indication of risk as well as to guide intervention. However, the strong interrelations between the variables call for precaution in treating them as if they were separate entities existing in reality.