Mapping risk of cadmium and lead contamination to human health in soils of Central Iran.

In order to map Cd and Pb contamination in the soils of the region of Isfahan, Central Iran, we performed indicator kriging on a set of 255 topsoil samples (0-20 cm) gathered irregularly from an area of 6800 km(2). The measured Cd concentrations exceeded the Swiss guide value in more than 80% of the samples whereas Pb concentrations exceeded the respective guide value only in 2% of the samples. Based on the simulated conditional distribution functions, the probability of exceeding the concentration of Cd and Pb from the specific threshold was computed. The results indicated that in most parts of the region the probability of contamination by Cd is very large (>0.95) whereas it is small (<0.5) for Pb. Based on a misclassification analysis, we chose the probability of 0.45 as optimum probability threshold to delineate the polluted from unpolluted areas for Cd. In addition, we performed a loss analysis to separate risks to human health from potential losses due to remediation costs. Based on this analysis a probability threshold of 0.8 was found to be the optimum threshold for the classification of polluted and unpolluted areas in the case of Cd. Health risks were found to be larger in the western parts of the region. Misclassification analysis was sufficient for risk mapping for Pb as its concentration did not reach risk levels for human health. A probability of 0.7 for Pb was found to be the optimum threshold for the delineation of polluted and unpolluted lands.