| Literature DB >> 15907573 |
J C Mariner1, J McDermott, J A P Heesterbeek, A Catley, P Roeder.
Abstract
The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively).Entities:
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Year: 2005 PMID： 15907573 DOI： 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.02.001
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Prev Vet Med ISSN： 0167-5877 Impact factor: 2.670