Quantitative angiographic and statistical methods to assess serial changes in coronary luminal diameter and implications for atherosclerosis regression trials.

The purpose of this study was (1) to determine a threshold for categorizing individual coronary lesions as either significantly progressing or regressing, (2) to determine whether multiple lesions within individual patients progress at independent rates, and (3) to calculate sample sizes for atherosclerosis regression trials. Seventeen patients with 46 significant lesions (2.7 lesions/patient) underwent repeat coronary arteriography 3.0 years apart. With use of the standard error of the mean change in diameter from initial to repeat catheterization across 5 pairs of consecutive end-diastolic frames, individual lesions were categorized as either significantly (p less than 0.01) progressing or regressing if there was a 0.27 mm change in minimum diameter or a 7.8 percent point change in percent stenosis. The mean diameter change of a sample of lesions can also be analyzed as a continuous variable using either the lesions or the patient as the primary unit of analysis. A lesion-specific analysis can be accomplished using a multiple regression model that accounts for the intraclass correlation (rho) in the degree of change among multiple lesions within individual patients. The intraclass correlations in percent stenosis (rho = 0.01) and minimum diameter (rho = -0.24) were low, indicating that disease progression in different lesions within individual patients is nearly independent. With use of this model, 50 patients per treatment group would permit the detection of a 5.5% difference between treatment group means in the change in minimum diameter and a 2.7% percentage point (not percent) difference in the change in percent stenosis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)