A simple dose-response relationship for modeling secondary cancer incidence after radiotherapy.

Estimates of secondary cancer risk after radiotherapy are becoming more important for comparative treatment planning. There is great uncertainty concerning the dose-response relationship for radiation-induced carcinogenesis at doses higher than 4 Gy. The purpose of this report is to determine a simple dose-response relationship for secondary cancer incidence after radiotherapy treatment which can be used for comparative treatment planning. In this report a simple one-parameter model to estimate the complication probability of secondary cancer was fitted to literature data on secondary cancer incidence after radiotherapy. The results showed a linear dose-response relationship in the low-dose part and an exponentially decreasing one after a maximum at around 10 Gy. The observed dose-response relationship and the literature data used to fit the dose-response indicate that cell death effects are important for the explanation of secondary cancer incidence. Even using a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) of two (instead of one), a cancer incidence maximum is observed at around 10 Gy, with decreasing incidence at higher doses.