A framework for understanding the potential for emerging diseases in aquaculture.

Numerous diseases have emerged as serious economic or ecological problems in aquaculture species. The combination of factors behind the emergence of each disease is unique, but various common factors are apparent. We combine risk-analysis methods and virulence theory with historical examples (mainly from salmonid production) to identify key disease-emergence risk factors. Diseases have emerged through pathogen exchange with wild populations, evolution from non-pathogenic micro-organisms and anthropogenic transfer of stocks. Aquacultural practices frequently result in high population densities and other stresses (such as intercurrent disease) which increase the risk of infection establishment and spread. As aquaculture expands and new species are farmed, diseases will continue to emerge and affect both wild and farmed fish adversely. The rate and extent of emergence can be reduced by the application of biosecurity programmes designed to mitigate the risk factors for disease emergence.