Cumulative incidence of type 1 diabetes in 10,168 siblings of Finnish young-onset type 1 diabetic patients.

The aims of our analysis were to obtain the empirical risk estimates for type 1 diabetes in the siblings of a Finnish population-based cohort of childhood-onset diabetic patients and search for demographic and other factors predicting the risk of type 1 diabetes in siblings. We defined the diabetes status of all siblings of all probands who are included in the nationwide register of Finnish cases for whom type 1 diabetes was diagnosed before age 18 years between 1965 and 1979. Siblings' diabetes status was ascertained by a record search of nationwide registries through 2001, and the type of diabetes and date of its manifestation were obtained from medical records. The total number of person-years during the follow-up was 405,685. Of the 10,168 siblings at risk, 647 (6.4%) had been diagnosed with type 1 diabetes by 2001. The cumulative incidence of type 1 diabetes by ages 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 years in all siblings was 1.5, 4.1, 5.5, 6.4, and 6.9%, respectively. A young age at diagnosis in the index case, paternal young-onset diabetes, male sex, and older parental age at delivery considerably increased the risk of type 1 diabetes for siblings. This large prospective family study of type 1 diabetes in siblings of childhood-onset diabetic patients provides reliable empirical estimates for the sibling recurrence risk.