Are the economics of pharmaceutical research and development changing?: productivity, patents and political pressures.

Pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) competition in the 1980s and 1990 s was characterised by rising R&D expenditures, favourable returns to innovators and the introduction of many new classes of drugs with high social benefits. However, in the past 3 years, the number of new drug introductions has been well below the historical trend, while the cost per new drug continues to increase. In addition to lagging R&D productivity, the industry has been characterised by other economic and policy uncertainties. These include a wave of early patent challenges and growing political pressure to contain pharmaceutical expenditures. This paper examines the consequences of these developments.