Predictors of mortality for the oldest old. A 4-year follow-up of community-based elderly in Sweden.

The aim of this study is to investigate predictors for mortality in two age groups, 75-84 years old and 85 years and older. Interviews were carried out on 161 community-based persons aged 75-84 and 260 persons aged 85 and over. Predictors for mortality 4 years later were analyzed using logistic regression. Different models to predict mortality were found for the two age groups. Gender and IADL (Instrumental Activities of Daily Living) were found to be significant for the older group while ADL (Primary Activities of Daily Living), mobility and life satisfaction were significant for the younger group. Eliminating variables based on the nurse's evaluations did not change the model for the 85+ age group; in the 75-84 age group the nurse's assessment of ADL was replaced by a self-reported IADL index. Results confirm the heterogeneity of the elderly population and the importance of ADL and subjective measures for predicting mortality.