Can climate change explain increases in DOC flux from upland peat catchments?

Long-term increases in DOC concentration in rivers draining areas of upland peat are a ubiquitous phenomenon in the UK. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these increases, but one compelling explanation is the observed long-term increase in temperature in UK uplands causing increases in peat decomposition rates, and increasing the depth of oxidation as evaporation increases depth to the water table. The study constructed an empirical model for water table depth and decomposition rate calibrated against observations from the Environmental Change Network monitoring site at Moor House in the North Pennines, UK. The study shows: (i) Depth of the water table has not changed significantly over a 30-year period, reflecting the fact that blanket peat is well buffered against climate change. (ii) Increases in temperature are responsible for a 12% increase in DOC production while an approximate 78% increase in DOC production has been observed. (iii) Overall DOC production is predicted to rise by 6% but observation suggests increases on the scale of 97%. (iv) The model inadequately represents changes in production and supply of DOC during periods of severe drought. The study shows that temperature change alone is insufficient to explain observed increases in DOC production. Alternative explanations for large increases in DOC production could include changes in land management, but an enzymic latch mechanism, i.e. derepression of anaerobic degradation, causing increased decomposition rates in response to severe drought is preferred. Copryright 2003 Elsevier B.V.