The quantitative assessment of domino effects caused by overpressure. Part I. Probit models.

Accidents caused by domino effect are among the more severe that took place in the chemical and process industry. However, a well established and widely accepted methodology for the quantitative assessment of domino accidents contribution to industrial risk is still missing. Hence, available data on damage to process equipment caused by blast waves were revised in the framework of quantitative risk analysis, aiming at the quantitative assessment of domino effects caused by overpressure. Specific probit models were derived for several categories of process equipment and were compared to other literature approaches for the prediction of probability of damage of equipment loaded by overpressure. The results evidence the importance of using equipment-specific models for the probability of damage and equipment-specific damage threshold values, rather than general equipment correlation, which may lead to errors up to 500%.