Anticipatory breeding for resistance to rust diseases in wheat.

Anticipatory resistance breeding is the process of predicting future pathotypes and producing resistant germplasm to avert future losses. It is made possible by a national pathotype surveillance program and knowledge that new pathotypes arise predominantly from mutation in existing pathotypes. This is supported by genetic analyses to catalogue the identity and distribution of resistance genes in current cultivars. A national germplasm enhancement program ensuring that both currently effective and potentially new sources of resistance are available in a wide range of adapted genotypes enables rapid cultivar replacement before or soon after the occurrence of new pathotypes. The policy of recommending only rust-resistant cultivars in the more rust-prone areas has resulted in significant reductions in pathogen population size and variability. With increased and more rapid international human travel and transport, there is an increased threat of exotic pathotypes, the effects of which are more difficult to predict. As the frequency and magnitude of epidemics decline, public awareness programs will be required to achieve and maintain the use of rust resistance by the entire wheat industry.