OBJECTIVE: To externally validate two prognostic models predicting functional outcome and survival 100 days after acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: Using prospectively collected data from 1,470 patients, the authors evaluated two previously developed models. Model I predicts incomplete functional recovery (Barthel Index <95) vs complete functional recovery with 11 variables, whereas model II predicts mortality vs survival with 3 variables. On admission to a participating hospital, patients were registered prospectively and included according to defined criteria. Within 72 hours, predictive variables under investigation were assessed. Follow-up was performed 100 days after the event. RESULTS: Model I correctly predicted 68.1% of the patients who had incompletely recovered or had died and 85.7% of the completely recovered patients, model II 46.9% of the patients who had died and 95.9% of the surviving patients. Both models performed better than the treating physicians' predictions made within 72 hours after admission. CONCLUSION: The resulting prognostic models are useful to correctly stratify treatment groups in clinical trials and to accurately predict the distribution of endpoint variables.
OBJECTIVE: To externally validate two prognostic models predicting functional outcome and survival 100 days after acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: Using prospectively collected data from 1,470 patients, the authors evaluated two previously developed models. Model I predicts incomplete functional recovery (Barthel Index <95) vs complete functional recovery with 11 variables, whereas model II predicts mortality vs survival with 3 variables. On admission to a participating hospital, patients were registered prospectively and included according to defined criteria. Within 72 hours, predictive variables under investigation were assessed. Follow-up was performed 100 days after the event. RESULTS: Model I correctly predicted 68.1% of the patients who had incompletely recovered or had died and 85.7% of the completely recovered patients, model II 46.9% of the patients who had died and 95.9% of the surviving patients. Both models performed better than the treating physicians' predictions made within 72 hours after admission. CONCLUSION: The resulting prognostic models are useful to correctly stratify treatment groups in clinical trials and to accurately predict the distribution of endpoint variables.
Authors: J Mocco; Evan R Ransom; Ricardo J Komotar; Paulina B Sergot; Noeleen Ostapkovich; J Michael Schmidt; Kurt T Kreiter; Stephan A Mayer; E Sander Connolly Journal: J Neurol Date: 2006-10-24 Impact factor: 4.849
Authors: Natalia S Rost; Alessandro Biffi; Lisa Cloonan; John Chorba; Peter Kelly; David Greer; Patrick Ellinor; Karen L Furie Journal: Stroke Date: 2011-11-23 Impact factor: 7.914