The number of protein folds and their distribution over families in nature.

Currently, of the 10(6) known protein sequences, only about 10(4) structures have been solved. Based on homologies and similarities, proteins are grouped into different families in which each has a structural prototype, namely, the fold, and some share the same folds. However, the total number of folds and families, and furthermore, the distribution of folds over families in nature, are still an enigma. Here, we report a study on the distribution of folds over families and the total number of folds in nature, using a maximum probability principle and the moment method of estimation. A quadratic relation between the numbers of families and folds is found for the number of families in an interval from 6000 to 30,000. For example, about 2700 folds for 23,100 families are obtained, among them about 33 superfolds, including more than 100 families each, and the largest superfold comprises about 800 families. Our results suggest that although the majority of folds have only a single family per fold, a considerably larger number of folds include many more families each than in the database, and the distribution of folds over families in nature differs markedly from the sampled distribution. The long tail of fold distribution is first estimated in this article. The results fit the data for different versions of the structural classification of proteins (SCOP) excellently, and the goodness-of-fit tests strongly support the results. In addition, the method of directly "enlarging" the sample to the population may be useful in inferring distributions of species in different fields. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.