Prognostic factors in sterile pancreatic necrosis.

Although the overall mortality in sterile pancreatic necrosis is low, patients who experience systemic complications may have a higher mortality. To study the impact of systemic complications and other factors on survival, possible prognostic factors were evaluated among 26 patients who experienced at least one systemic complication. Mortality was 38%. Factors that correlated with a fatal outcome were high Ranson's scores during the first 48 hours (P = 0.01), high APACHE-II scores at admission (P = 0.04) and at 48 hours (P = 0.03), shock (P < 0.001), renal insufficiency (P < 0.05), multiple systemic complications (P < 0.001), and high body mass index (P = 0.01). Most systemic complications occurred during the first 2 weeks of illness. Logistic regression analysis showed that shock was the best predictor of a fatal outcome. Patients with favorable prognostic factors survived whether treated medically or surgically, whereas those with unfavorable factors had a fatal outcome whether treated medically or surgically. It is concluded that patients with severe sterile necrosis have a high mortality rate and that shock and other prognostic factors identify which patients are most likely to have a fatal outcome.