OBJECTIVE: To construct a score that would accurately predict outcome for patients with perforated peptic ulcers. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: University Hospital. SUBJECTS: 173 patients who were operated on for perforated peptic duodenal ulcers over a 14 year period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Results of multivariate discriminant function analysis of derived set of clinical variables known to be associated with high mortality, and comparison with the Mannheim Peritonitis Index. RESULTS: Serious coexisting medical illness, acute renal failure, white cell count of more than 20 x 10(9)/l, and male sex were the most significant factors influencing mortality. The Hacettepe score for perforated peptic ulcer was established using these four variables. The sensitivity was 83%, the specificity 94%, and the overall predictive accuracy 93%. The corresponding figures for the Mannheim Peritonitis Index were 75%, 96%, and 94% respectively. CONCLUSION: The Hacettepe score is useful in predicting whether a patient will survive after perforation of a peptic duodenal ulcer.
OBJECTIVE: To construct a score that would accurately predict outcome for patients with perforated peptic ulcers. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: University Hospital. SUBJECTS: 173 patients who were operated on for perforated peptic duodenal ulcers over a 14 year period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Results of multivariate discriminant function analysis of derived set of clinical variables known to be associated with high mortality, and comparison with the Mannheim Peritonitis Index. RESULTS: Serious coexisting medical illness, acute renal failure, white cell count of more than 20 x 10(9)/l, and male sex were the most significant factors influencing mortality. The Hacettepe score for perforated peptic ulcer was established using these four variables. The sensitivity was 83%, the specificity 94%, and the overall predictive accuracy 93%. The corresponding figures for the Mannheim Peritonitis Index were 75%, 96%, and 94% respectively. CONCLUSION: The Hacettepe score is useful in predicting whether a patient will survive after perforation of a peptic duodenal ulcer.